Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Industrial growth dips to 0.1%, may prompt RBI to cut rates

One day after Standard and Poor has warned that India could lose investment grade rating, its annual industry growth rate slumped to 0.1% in April, increasing the chance that the Reserve Bank could take interest rates to next week to boost the sagging economy. As many as 10 of 22 segments, the capital goods and mining, posted negative growth of the country grapples with the global slowdown and subdued domestic demand. IIP grew by 5.3% in April 2011.However, offer some comfort, the data for the month under review was positive, as opposed to 3.2% drop logged in March."I was frustrated. Industry has not yet been taken. Negative sentiments are there. We have taken steps to provide positive signals," finance minister Pranab Mukherjee told reporters in New Delhi.The output of capital goods declined by a whopping 16.3% in April as against a growth of 6.6% over the same month last year, clearly shows that traders are loss of appetite for new investment.Mining output contracted by 3.1% in April, as opposed to growth of 1.6% over the same month a year ago.The slowdown in industrial production will certainly weigh on the Reserve Bank to take the rate of lending in its mid-quarterly review on June 18.The IIP data is yet another bad news for the economy. on Monday, global agency S & P put India on notice for a possible downgrade of its sovereign credit rating to below investment grade.However, the stock market ignored both S & P warnings and dismal performance among industrial expect a rate cut by the Reserve Bank.The BSE 30-scrip index, Sensex, was trading higher post IIP data release.In commenting on the observations of the S & P, Mukherjee said, "... from their point of view expressed their concerns ... we took it and remember ... we are to fix our own problems and for that we are taking the necessary steps. "He further said, "The announcements made in the Budget will take at least two to three months to show effects which are not visible in April."The manufacturing sector, which generates more than 75% of the index, grew nearly 0.1%, as against 5.7% in April 2011, said the data.However, consumer goods production showed a faster growth rate of 5.2% in April, compared to 3.2% over the same month last year.The consumer durables segment also expanded by 5% in April, as against 1.6% in the same month last year.Power generation has witnessed a slower growth of 4.6% during April, compared to 6.5% in the same month a year ago.According to Crisil principal economist DK Joshi, "The numbers are pointing to the continued deceleration. These figures are much lower than expected ... RBI may take rates by 25 basis points in the forthcoming evaluation of policy. "Expressing a similar opinion, SBI Brinda Jagirdar economist said, "These numbers are even weaker than anticipated. This is the trend seen over the last few months. This suggests that the investment pipeline is dry."

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